Social Security Decision Framework
Social Security decisions are not just about the numbers. Its about your life. Put your name and email in this form to get your free worksheet.
I created the S.E.C.U.R.E. framework because I was tired of watching people make life-altering decisions based on generic advice. This framework evaluates six critical factors and gives you a personalized score that tells you when to claim.
S.E.C.U.R.E. stands for:
Sequence Risk
Expectations (life expectancy)
Capacity (health span)
Underspending psychology
Regret tolerance
Economic flexibility
Let me break down each one.
[S - Sequence Risk: What’s Your Portfolio Vulnerability?]
Sequence risk is the danger of poor market returns early in retirement, especially when you’re taking withdrawals. If you retire into a bear market and you’re pulling money from your portfolio, you can permanently damage your long-term wealth.
Here’s where Social Security becomes critical: It’s a guaranteed income stream that reduces how much you need to withdraw from your portfolio during those vulnerable early years.
The scoring:
10 points - EXTREME SEQUENCE RISK (Claim Early)
- Portfolio is less than 10x your annual Social Security benefit
- You’d need to withdraw 8%+ annually if you delay claiming
- You have limited cash reserves (less than 2 years of expenses)
- Example: $300K portfolio, $36K annual SS benefit = you’d withdraw 12%+
7 points - HIGH SEQUENCE RISK
- Portfolio is 10-15x your annual Social Security benefit
- You’d need to withdraw 5-7% annually if you delay
- You have 2-3 years of cash reserves
- Example: $500K portfolio, $40K annual SS benefit = 8% withdrawal
4 points - MODERATE SEQUENCE RISK
- Portfolio is 15-25x your annual Social Security benefit
- You’d need to withdraw 3-5% annually if you delay
- You have 3-5 years of cash reserves
- Example: $900K portfolio, $48K annual SS benefit = 5% withdrawal
1 point - LOW SEQUENCE RISK (Favors Waiting)
- Portfolio is 25x+ your annual Social Security benefit
- You’d withdraw less than 3% annually if delaying
- You have 5+ years in cash/TIPS specifically earmarked for delay
- Example: $2M+ portfolio, $50K annual SS benefit = 2.5% withdrawal
Most people fall somewhere in the middle.
[Real-World Example]
Client has a $400,000 portfolio and would receive $30,000 annually from Social Security. That’s 13 times their benefit. If they retire at 62 and immediately need $40,000 per year to live, they’re forced to pull 10% from their portfolio if they don’t claim Social Security.
If the market drops 30% in year one, their portfolio is now $280,000 after withdrawals. They’re in serious trouble. But if they claim Social Security at 62, they only need to withdraw $10,000 from their portfolio—a 2.5% withdrawal rate. Much safer.
[E - Expectations: What’s Your Life Expectancy?]
This is simple but critical. Look at your family history and health.
The scoring:
10 points - LIMITED LONGEVITY (Claim Early)
- Significant health issues that may shorten lifespan
- Family history: Parents/siblings passed before age 75
- You’re a smoker or have chronic health conditions
- Doctor has expressed concerns about longevity
- Your honest assessment: unlikely to reach age 82
7 points - AVERAGE LONGEVITY
- Generally good health with some manageable conditions
- Family history: Parents lived to mid-70s to early 80s
- Lifestyle: average health habits
- Your honest assessment: likely to reach age 78-85
4 points - ABOVE AVERAGE LONGEVITY
- Very good health, active lifestyle
- Family history: Parents lived to mid-80s
- No significant health concerns
- Your honest assessment: likely to reach age 85-90
Be honest with yourself. Don’t use population averages. Use YOUR data.
[C - Capacity: What’s Your Health Span & Activity Timeline?]
This is the question most advisors never ask: When will you actually DO the things you’ve been dreaming about?
If you want to travel the world, hike Machu Picchu, or spend time with grandkids while you’re healthy enough to enjoy it, that’s probably in your 60s and early 70s, not your late 70s and 80s.
The scoring:
10 points - FRONT-LOADED ACTIVITY TIMELINE (Claim Early)
- You have a bucket list requiring physical capability NOW (ages 62-70)
- International travel, adventure activities, active grandparenting are priorities
- You’ve deferred experiences and are ready to GO
- You recognize your 60s ≠ your 80s in capability
- Specific trips/activities planned that can’t wait 5-8 years
7 points - EARLY EMPHASIS
- Moderate travel and activity plans for ages 62-70
- Some physically demanding activities planned
- Prefer to front-load experiences but could adjust timing
- Want financial confidence to retire sooner rather than later
4 points - FLEXIBLE TIMELINE
- Activities don’t require peak physical health
- Comfortable spreading experiences across retirement
- Not particularly concerned about health span limitations
- Content with slower-paced retirement activities
Money at 62 when you can climb mountains is worth more than extra money at 78 when you’re in a rocking chair.
The next three factors are psychological, and honestly, they’re the most important. Because a perfect financial decision that makes you miserable isn’t actually perfect.
This is where most financial planning goes wrong. Advisors optimize for maximum money at the end of your life. But that’s not the goal. The goal is maximum *life* during your life.
If waiting until 70 means you miss eight years of experiences because you’re afraid to spend your portfolio, you didn’t win—you lost. If claiming at 62 gives you confidence to actually enjoy retirement, that’s worth more than a bigger check at 80.
Optimize for life lived, not just life expectancy.
Real example: Client couple had $800,000 saved. By the math, they should wait until 70. But they had a bucket list: Australia, New Zealand, African safari, extended time with grandkids. I asked: “When will you do these things?” They said their 60s while they’re healthy.
We claimed at 62. The guaranteed Social Security income gave them permission to spend their portfolio on experiences. They took the trips. Created the memories. And you know what? They’re happier than any couple I know who’s sitting on $2 million waiting to die.
[U - Underspending: What’s Your Spending Psychology?]
This is huge. Some people have no problem spending their savings. Others feel physically anxious watching their account balance drop, even though that’s what it’s there for.
If you’re someone who’s uncomfortable spending your portfolio, guaranteed Social Security income is psychologically liberating. It gives you permission to spend because it’s “income,” not “savings.”
The scoring:
10 points - STRONG PORTFOLIO SPENDING RESISTANCE (Claim Early)
- You’re a lifelong saver who struggles to spend investments
- Watching portfolio balance decline causes anxiety
- You’d spend Social Security freely but hoard portfolio assets
- Your advisor has noted you consistently underspend
- You recognize you need “permission” to spend via guaranteed income
7 points - MODERATE SPENDING HESITANCY
- You’re somewhat uncomfortable drawing down portfolio
- Guaranteed income would increase your spending confidence
- You’re more frugal than necessary given your assets
- Social Security would feel more “spendable” than investments
4 points - BALANCED APPROACH
- You’re comfortable with reasonable portfolio withdrawals
- Income source doesn’t significantly affect spending behavior
- You treat all retirement assets relatively equally
- No strong psychological distinction between income sources
1 point - PORTFOLIO SPENDING COMFORT (Favors Waiting)
- You’re completely comfortable spending investment assets
- Income source is irrelevant to your spending decisions
- You view all money as fungible
- You have no psychological barrier to portfolio drawdowns
- You’d spend the same amount regardless of income source
YOUR UNDERSPENDING SCORE: _____
[R - Regret: How Would You Feel About Different Outcomes?]
This is the emotional risk tolerance question. Two scenarios:
Scenario A: You claim at 62, enjoy the money, but live to 95. You left some lifetime income on the table.
Scenario B: You wait until 70 for the maximum benefit but die at 76. You sacrificed eight years of income for nothing.
Which scenario would you regret more?
10 points - EARLY DEATH REGRET DOMINANT (Claim Early)
- The thought of dying at 72 without having claimed causes significant anxiety
- You’d be devastated to “lose” 8-10 years of potential benefits
- You worry about benefit cuts or policy changes
- You’d regret not using that money for experiences/family
- Strong emotional weight on “money left on the table”
7 points - MODERATE EARLY DEATH REGRET
- You’d feel some regret dying before break-even
- Policy changes concern you moderately
- You lean toward “bird in hand” mentality
- Missing benefits would bother you, but not severely
4 points - BALANCED REGRET POTENTIAL
- You’d feel mild regret in either scenario
- You’re relatively accepting of uncertainty
- You understand you can’t optimize for unknowable futures
- Both outcomes seem tolerable
1 point - LONGEVITY REGRET DOMINANT (Favors Waiting)
- Living to 95 with a smaller benefit would bother you more
- You’d regret not maximizing lifetime income
- Policy changes don’t concern you significantly
- You have low anxiety about “missing out” on early benefits
- You’re comfortable with delayed gratification
[E - Economic Flexibility: Do You Need Portfolio Optionality?]
The final factor: Do you value having liquid assets you can access, or do you prefer guaranteed income?
If you’re planning to help your kids with a house down payment, handle potential medical expenses, or deal with unexpected costs, claiming early preserves your portfolio for those needs.
If you have no major expected expenses and just want maximum guaranteed income for life, waiting makes sense.
The scoring:
- 10 points - CRITICAL FLEXIBILITY NEEDS (Claim Early)
- You anticipate major expenses (helping kids, long-term care, etc.)
- You want ability to make large gifts or investments opportunistically
- Portfolio depletion would eliminate important options
- You value liquidity and “real options” highly
- You may need lump sums that Social Security can’t provide
7 points - MODERATE FLEXIBILITY PREFERENCE
- Some anticipated large expenses or giving goals
- You prefer having portfolio reserves for surprises
- Maintaining optionality has meaningful value to you
- You like having “dry powder” for opportunities
4 points - LIMITED FLEXIBILITY NEEDS
- Few anticipated major expenses beyond regular spending
- You don’t foresee needing large lump sums
- Optionality has some value but isn’t critical
- Portfolio depletion wouldn’t significantly limit your plans
1 point - MINIMAL FLEXIBILITY NEEDS (Favors Waiting)
- No anticipated major expenses or giving beyond annual spending
- You prioritize guaranteed lifetime income over optionality
- You have other resources for unexpected needs
- Portfolio depletion to maximize Social Security doesn’t concern you
- You value insurance over flexibility
YOUR ECONOMIC FLEXIBILITY SCORE: _____
Here’s your step-by-step action plan to make your Social Security decision this week:
Action Step 1: Calculate Your S.E.C.U.R.E. Score (20 minutes)
I’ve created a free S.E.C.U.R.E. decision framework worksheet—which you can download at the of this page. Go through each of the six factors and score yourself honestly:
- Sequence Risk (1-10)
- Expectations (1-10)
- Capacity (1-10)
- Underspending (1-10)
- Regret (1-10)
- Economic Flexibility (1-10)
Add up your total score out of 60.
Action Step 2: Interpret Your Score (5 minutes)
- Score 45-60: Claim early (age 62-63). You have high sequence risk, shorter longevity expectations, or strong desire for liquidity and flexibility.
- Score 30-44: Claim at full retirement age (66-67). You have a balanced profile with moderate risk and longevity outlook.
- Score 6-29: Consider waiting until 70. You have low risk, long life expectancy, or strong desire for maximum survivor benefits.
Action Step 3: Run the Real Breakeven Analysis (15 minutes)
Don’t use the standard breakeven calculator. Use one that accounts for investing early benefits. I’ve linked to a proper calculator in the description.
Input your numbers:
- Social Security benefit at different ages
- Expected investment return on early benefits (use 5% to be conservative)
- Portfolio withdrawal needs if you delay
See what your actual breakeven age is—not the fake one that ignores investment returns.
Action Step 4: Consider Spousal and Survivor Benefits
If you’re married, run the analysis for both spouses. Often the optimal strategy is:
- Lower-earning spouse claims early
- Higher-earning spouse delays to maximize survivor benefits
The survivor benefit is based on the higher earner’s benefit, so delaying can protect your spouse if you die first.
[The Decision]
Take all this information and make your decision based on YOUR situation—not conventional wisdom, not what worked for your neighbor, not what some TV financial guru said.
This is your retirement. Own the decision.
When I run clients through S.E.C.U.R.E., about 60% of them score in the “claim early or at full retirement age” range. Only about 20% should actually wait until 70.
That’s the opposite of what the financial industry preaches. But it makes sense when you consider real-world factors like health, psychology, and life goals—not just pure mathematics on a spreadsheet.
The question isn’t “What should everyone do?” It’s “What should YOU do?”
I can show you scenarios where waiting until 70 produces $50,000 more in lifetime benefits. But if waiting causes you anxiety, makes you afraid to spend, or forces you to miss experiences you care about, it’s not the right plan.
The perfect plan you won’t follow beats the optimal plan you can’t maintain.
This is why the psychological factors in S.E.C.U.R.E. matter as much as the financial factors. A claiming strategy that doesn’t fit your personality, values, and life goals will make you miserable—even if it’s mathematically “optimal.”
Real example: Client scored a 28 on S.E.C.U.R.E.—should wait until 70 by the math. But when I asked about regret tolerance, he admitted he’d be furious if he died before collecting much. That emotional reality mattered more than the score.
We claimed at his full retirement age of 67. Not optimal mathematically, but optimal for his peace of mind. And that’s what matters.